Top experts warned today that Britain’s Covid booster jab drives are still moving too slowly despite NHS England boasting that it has reached a record level last week.
Official figures show 1.6million people in England were given their third dose last week, a slight improvement for the sluggish drive that was only reaching 1.1million every seven days at the start of October.
Critics said that uptake was still too low with 7.2 million vulnerable people still waiting for their booster. They warned that it could take until mid January to give the 32 million eligible people their vital immunity booster.
Dr Raghib Al Ali, an epidemiologist at Cambridge University said that the lagging rates were what ‘concerned’ him most heading into winter.
UK Department of Health data has shown that the average daily number of boosters distributed each day has fallen by tenths from around 300,000. per day in October 24, to 270,000 last Thursday.
Ministers stressed the importance of a quick, successful booster campaign to prevent the country from returning to ‘Plan B.’ This winter, the country will be subject to restrictions such as face masks and vaccination passports. Work from home guidance may also be imposed if the NHS is under too much pressure.
Sajid Javid (Health Secretary) said last month at a grim press conference that ‘if not enough people get booster jabs’ then “it would of course make more likely that we will have more restrictions.”
Initial delays caused by the NHS bosses blaming a lack of demand, the NHS booster campaign was hampered by delays. However, elderly people were reported to have been turned away despite having had their second jab six month ago. People can now walk-in, which will increase uptake and speed up the process.
Dr Ali stated, however, that ‘I fear the controversy around Plan B has distracted from the message about boosters being the key intervention to rescue lives.
The graph below shows the average number of booster doses given each day in the country (orange bar). It also shows how many people received their second doses six month ago (blue line), at which point they would be eligible to get a top-up jab.
The graph above shows the total number (red line) of Covid booster jabs given in England each week. It shows that the drive has reached an all-time high.
Top-up jabs for over-50s, care workers, NHS staff, and vulnerable people with severe underlying diseases will be provided to approximately 32 million people.
However, most people are being invited if they have received a second dose at least six months ago. This means that it was always going to be more complex than the initial rollout.
The 1.6million boosters given in England last week were still higher than the rate at which Government advisers had predicted the outbreak would progress. In fact, they expected that 1.3million boosters will be distributed each week.
Actuary warns that boosters for over-50s will not be available until after Christmas.
John Roberts, member of Covid’s response group, stated that millions could be without their booster doses before Christmas for over-50s
Experts warned that millions of over-50s could be without their booster Covid vaccines in the days ahead of Christmas.
Covid actuaries response group member John Roberts said some 14million second doses were being injected into people’s arms every day at the peak of the initial drive.
However, fewer boosters are being distributed now than the other half.
Robert’s said on BBC Radio 4’s Today that his concern is that the current pace of work means that the first priority groups 1 to 9 will not be completed until mid-January.
“That’s going be a lot of mixing Christmas with festive behavior before and then on day people who didn’t get that extra protection booster, which really makes a big difference.”
No10’s top scientists advise that over-50s wait six months after receiving their second dose to receive a booster dose.
Everyone aged 80 and over — or 2.8million people — is currently eligible for a Covid top up jab because they were invited for second doses from April, more than six months ago.
The over-70s and over-60s — some 8million-strong — are expected to be invited this month for their next dose.
They will likely be offered the jab only a few days before Christmas, when they are among the 7.3 million over-50s.
Roberts said that the rollout would have an impact on deaths and hospitalisations as well as on infections.
He said: ‘We have now vaccinated around about two-thirds of the over 80s and three quarters of those who are eligible, and I think we’re going to start to see over the next few days that that will start to come through, first in cases and then in hospitalisations and deaths.
‘And so we are going to see that benefit coming through but we could have done it a lot quicker than we’re doing it at the moment.’
He added: ‘The analysis that we’re getting from Israel is that it will probably reduce deaths by 80 or 90 per cent even.
‘So it’s important that we get on with it as quickly as possible.’
SAGE said in most scenarios, as long as there is 90 per cent uptake in eligible groups, the country should avoid a severe winter wave — even if the current speed of the NHS drive slows down slightly.
These scenarios indicate that there will be an increase in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in spring as immunity to boosters decreases, but this is unlikely to be at levels below those seen before the pandemic.
Scientists warned that delay in the booster roll-out could lead to an epidemic. However they did not predict what could happen if the drive proceeds at a faster rate than anticipated.
John Roberts, a member in the Covid actuaries group that advises on how best to respond to crisis, today warned against complacency.
He said that he was worried about the fact that we won’t complete priority groups 1 through 9 until mid-January at the current pace.
“This is going to lead to a lot more mixing of Christmas and festive behaviour before and after Christmas for people who don’t have that booster, which really does make all the difference.”
In the UK, 8.1 million booster doses have been administered.
This is only half of the people who received their second jab six month ago. Millions of eligible adults will be due their next dose.
Mr Roberts added: ‘In England now we’ve given booster vaccinations to just under 7million people, but if you look back six months to how many had had their second jab at that point, it’s actually about 13million, so 12 or 13million.
‘So we’re actually about 6million short. People who are currently eligible but haven’t yet had the jab, and that gap has doubled in October, so we’ve gradually been falling behind.’
He added: ‘But having said that, the rate at which we’ve been jabbing people has increased over the last couple of weeks. It’s gone up from about 1.3million to 1.6million. So that’s a positive step.
“But we have seen that the increase has stalled over recent days.
‘So that’s not so great, because we really need to keep on increasing the number of people that we’re getting to, and to put that in context, during November more than 2million people a month will actually become newly eligible for the jab.
‘And so, we need to get it up to that rate just to do them, let alone catch up with the backlog we’ve got.’
According to England’s figures, just six out of ten people over-80 (65%) and over 75s (61%) have received their top up jabs.
Due to the dosing gap, many people in younger age groups have yet to be eligible.
SAGE modelling on the spread of the virus predicts a spring wave should 1.3million booster doses be dished out every week, and if ‘Plan B’ restrictions — including face masks and work from home guidance — are not imposed.
For residents of care homes and immunocompromised patients, the gap between doses was reduced to as low as four months last week.
Mr Roberts added: ‘We have now vaccinated around about two-thirds of the over 80s and three quarters of those who are eligible, and I think we’re going to start to see over the next few days that that will start to come through, first in cases and then in hospitalisations and deaths.
‘And so we are going to see that benefit coming through but we could have done it a lot quicker than we’re doing it at the moment.’
He added: ‘The analysis that we’re getting from Israel is that it will probably reduce deaths by 80 or 90 per cent even.
‘So it’s important that we get on with it as quickly as possible.’
SAGE’s modeling predicted that the combination vaccine-acquired immunity with natural protection would be sufficient to keep hospital rates down below the levels seen in the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios of the group, they estimated that daily Covid hospital visits would not rise above 1,500. They could be as low as 1,000 in winter according to more optimistic models. These charts are based upon Warwick University modelling and show how quickly people can return to pre-pandemic social connections. It was based on booster doses of’sustained immune system’.
Many pensioners over 65 complained last month that they couldn’t find the right place to get their third jab. They were also turned down by their GPs.
Ministers have dropped the requirement that eligible people receive an invitation from NHS before booking their third dose online.
There are already signs that the rollout is starting to have an impact, driving down older cases.
Britain’s Covid cases fell for eight consecutive days during the half-term break. Millions of schoolchildren weren’t required to test for the virus.
Yesterday, however, they rose at the same time as last week when 40.077 were recorded. The figures, however, did not include Wales seven days ago. This may have skew the statistics.
The figures show that over-85s had seen their Covid cases decrease by seven per cent within a week starting October 27, according to the latest available data. The latest data for 80-84-year olds shows that infections have declined by 9.5% in seven consecutive days.
Dr Ali stated on Twitter that he wanted to urgently inform all high-risk groups about the booster as a way to protect them.
“Walk-in-clinics, which are being established today, are a positive step. However, we need more to reach 500,000 people per day. We need to reduce this gap to five months (as it is in Israel).
Evidence from Israeli clinical trials and real-world data is overwhelming. [that boosters are needed].
Dr Ali cited Israeli figures showing a 93% drop in hospitalisations, 92% drop in severe illness and an 81% drop in deaths in boosters recipients compared to those who received only two doses.