Britain may face yet another year of Covid misery, despite the hugely successful vaccination drive. Scientists have warned that there is data to suggest that immunity from booster jabs begins to fade within 10 weeks.
Real-world data from the UK shows that the effectiveness of Pfizer’s top-up dosage at stopping symptoms falls to as low as 35% two and a half months after receiving a third dose. This is among those who have already received a full course AstraZeneca.
The immunity level remains stable at 70 percent after the same amount of time as for Pfizer-treated people. However, they drop to 45 per cent when given Moderna booster.
Britain may soon give a fourth booster because data shows that immunity fades very quickly following boosters. The UK would follow Israel’s lead and would receive a fourth booster. Israel has already begun tests to determine if the second round is necessary.
No10’s Jab Advisors await more data to show how the vaccines prevent serious illnesses before they push ahead with another vaccination drive. Even against Omicron Omicron two jabs have significantly reduced the likelihood of being hospitalized. A third one is likely to increase that risk.
This means that a fourth dose might not be required for the entire UK. Ministers may only advise to give extra doses to elderly or immunocompromised people in the next months even though an annual vaccine drive has been approved for all adults.
According to one of the government’s advisers, it was impossible for Covid to be ‘defeated’ with vaccines. If everyone required a refill every three months, it would not be possible. This would mean that the NHS could give the equivalent of 50,000,000 jabs each 90 days or 550,000 per day.
This would put the cost of an annual vaccination drive in the region of £4billion, based on one jab being priced at around £20 per dose — similar to Pfizer.
Universal Covid jabs — which experts hope will offer better protection and hold up against variants that emerge in the future — aren’t expected for another 18 months, England chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty told MPs earlier this month.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which analysed the data, found that immunity from Delta and third Covid jabs waned faster against Omicron. This graph illustrates its findings that adult who have received 2 doses of AstraZeneca and a Pfizer booster or Moderna booster are 60% less likely to develop symptoms if they get Omicron within 4 weeks. However, after 10 weeks efficacy falls to 35% in the case of Moderna and 45% in Pfizer.
UKHSA data showed that people who were given Pfizer in all three doses of the vaccine saw their protection level increase by around 70% for the first two weeks, before dropping to approximately 45 percent 10 weeks later. The report found that people who received two AstraZeneca vaccinations along with a Moderna booster were most protected. Their efficacy against Omicron was 75% and the protection lasted at least 9 weeks.
Israel was the first nation to introduce booster jabs. Today, it began testing fourth doses of Covid jabs in 150 hospitals. The data collected will help determine if the additional shot is effective. It is also preparing for the introduction to the over-60 population. A fourth dose of Pfizer was administered to an Israeli male at Ramat Gan’s Sheba Medical Centre in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, on December 27, 2018.
National research centre Rosalind Franklin institute director Professor James Naismith stated that Omicron, Delta, and other viruses could continue to circulate until they are made available. That would put pressure on both the NHS and the government and force ministers into considering legal restrictions.
Experts worry that another variant could emerge in the interim, causing even more chaos.
MailOnline received this statement from Professor Naismith: “Double vaccine against Delta while providing protection against serious disease does not protect against Omicron infection.
“A Omicron-specific vaccination would provide greater protection against Omicron infection, but not Delta.
This problem could be solved by a polyvalent vaccine, which can protect against many strains. The vaccine could be used to prevent the emergence of other strains in the future.
Although vaccine makers quietly work on polyvalent Covid jabs, they all are in the early stages of development and still far from clinical trials.
New antivirals will be available in the interim to help reduce sickness and death. Professor Naismith stated that administering jabs for the unvaccinated can make a “tremendous change” and better ventilation at schools and work can also reduce transmission.
However, he cautioned that the biggest uncertainty is Covid itself as the virus “has a tendency towards behave in ways which we cannot yet predict”.
UKHSA analysis revealed that third Covid jabs do not provide immunity against Omicron.
The surveillance report showed that adults who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca plus one Pfizer booster or Moderna booster were 60% less likely than those without the vaccine to develop symptoms.
After ten weeks, however, the efficacy of Moderna and Pfizer drops to 35% and 45% respectively.
Those who took Pfizer’s top-up doses for their three doses experienced protection increases of around 70% for the first two weeks, before dropping to about 45 percent 10 weeks later.
Two AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccine recipients were most protected according to the report. The effectiveness against Omicron stood at 75%, and the duration was at least 9 weeks.
Although it is not clear how many booster doses of each jab were given out, officials don’t know exactly. However, the UK program heavily depends on Pfizer. Britain has already bought another 60million Moderna and 54million Pfizer doses for inoculation campaigns in 2022 and 2023.
UKHSA didn’t provide an explanation for this drop in performance. It was based upon nearly 70,000 Omicron case records.
The current vaccines are a response to the original Wuhan strain. As the virus continues its mutation, it is possible that the effectiveness of the jabs will decrease.
The current policy jabs are not designed to protect against symptoms of Covid. Instead, they aim to reduce the likelihood of dying or requiring hospital treatment.
Scientists expect protection against hospitalisation and death to last much longer even with Omicron, which has more than 30 mutations on its spike protein — the part of the virus cell that the vaccines recognise and trigger an immune response against.
Because vaccines also stimulate T cells, which are part of the immune system when viruses take hold, this is why it’s so effective.
An even slight reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe diseases can make it difficult for people to get vaccinated and increase their chances of becoming seriously ill.
Scientists at No10 previously stated that Omicron could reduce jab effectiveness against hospitalisation by 96 to 92%, resulting in a doubling of the population not vaccinated.
When boosters were first recommended by government advisors, they should be administered six months after the second dose. This was because it was considered a “sweet spot” and advisable to wait.
Ministers fear that the NHS may be overwhelmed despite the fact that the majority of people over 50 have been fully vaccinated, and this did not affect the dosing interval.
Former chair of BMA Public Health Medicine Committee Dr Peter English stated at the time that it was possible to strike a compromise between the need for people to become immune fast and the desire to get the most effective immune response.
He said that longer waits between jabs “generally lead to better immune responses” but it is not likely to make a significant difference in immunological response between three- and six-month intervals.
ENGLAND. According to the ONS Covid-19 Incident Survey, approximately 1.5million people contracted Covid in any week prior to December 19. This figure was 65% higher than the week before
This month, Professor Whitty told MPs in the Health and Social Care Select Committee (HSC Select Committee) that Britain will face 18 months of Covid restrictions. Before vaccines and medications are made available to counter the threat from Covid, Britain must be protected.
In mid-2023, he said that polyvalent vaccines will be available that cover a wider variety of Covid types. Then the UK will have’several’ antivirals that could be administered to anyone who has the virus.
Professor Whitty explained that at this point, ‘the vast majority’ and probably most of the heavy lifting can be performed by medical interventions.
However, the future direction of Britain’s vaccination strategy is still uncertain.
Israel was the first nation to offer booster jabs. Today, 150 staff members in hospitals across the country began testing fourth doses. After the decision was made by scientists, the country will offer injections to people over 60. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that fourth doses of Covid jabs would be administered four months later than a booster jab to protect against Omicron.
Telegraph: A Government source said that a fourth vaccination was a “definitely possible” in the UK, but that a decision of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is not likely until the New Year.
Professor Adam Finn of JCVI stated that it is currently under review. Also, there could be older people or vulnerable individuals who have received boosters earlier and may require a more powerful jab.
His statement stated that it was “still very doubtful” whether anyone would receive a fourth dose.
Clive Dix, a former UK head of the vaccine taskforce, said yesterday that AstraZeneca’s jab might offer long-term protection for some individuals and thanked it for keeping Britain’s death rates lower in comparison with European countries that rely on the mRNA vaccines.
AstraZeneca has shown that its jab uses an older vaccine technology and produces more T-cell responses than Moderna or Pfizer, both of which are preferred in Europe.
It is more difficult for antibodies to be measured than T-cells. However, they are believed to offer longer-lasting protection.
An Oxford University data site reports that Britain has 1.7 Covid deaths each day.
Comparatively, equivalent numbers in France and Germany are between 2.5 and 3.0, even though there are thousands of more UK cases every day.
According to Mr Dix, the Daily Telegraph reported that there was a rise in European cases and a parallel rise in deaths. However, this is not the case in Britain. We need to learn why.
“I believe this is because the majority of vulnerable persons were given AstraZeneca.
“We know from early evidence that the Oxford jab triggers a strong cellular response. Cellular immunity responses can be very long-lasting if they’re well maintained. Some cases it may last for a lifetime.