A Government scientific adviser said he is ‘very fearful’ there will be another ‘lockdown Christmas’.
Professor Peter Openshaw, a member in the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Groups CO-CIN and SAGE subgroup CO-CIN said that current death rates and case numbers were unacceptable.
Yesterday’s 1,000th Covid hospitalization in Britain was the highest in six weeks.
SAGE scientists argued that it was highly unlikely that the NHS would be infected by the virus this winter, even if there were no restrictions.
The Group for England predicted in their modeling that the combination of vaccine-acquired immunity as well as natural protection would be enough for hospitals to maintain rates below the levels seen in the second wave.
This comes as No10 is warned by trade union leaders that it could be in for another “winter of chaos” if it doesn’t immediately adopt its Covid Plan B.
A joint statement from unions including the TUC, Usdaw, Unison, Unite, the GMB and Aslef representing 3million workers demanded the Government bring in policies including the return of home-working and face mask-wearing.
The unions — which represent workers in retail, transport, healthcare, in which working from home is challenging — said there are already ‘hundreds’ of Covid outbreaks in workplaces.
Yesterday, Boris Johnson refused to comply with calls for tighter restrictions from health leaders despite rising levels of infection.
Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, said that new cases could reach 100,000 per day. However Downing Street maintained that there was still sufficient capacity in the NHS and that Plan B would only activate if it was under’significant pressure’.
SAGE’s modeling predicted that the combination vaccine-acquired immunity with natural protection would be sufficient to keep hospital rates down below the levels seen in the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios the group predicted that daily Covid hospital admissions wouldn’t rise above 1,500. They would be below 1,000 in winter, according to more optimistic models. These charts were based on Warwick University modeling and show how quickly people return to pre-pandemic social contacts. It was based on booster doses of’sustained immune system’.
Other SAGE modeling took into account’repeated waning’ from booster doses and projected that hospital admissions would exceed levels seen during January’s second wave.
Professor Openshaw, Imperial College London, said to BBC Breakfast, “I’m very scared that we will have another lockdown Christmas. If we don’t take action soon, I’m very worried.”
“We know that public health measures require immediate action. There is no point in waiting.
You must not delay if you want to take further action later. If you want to control things, it is essential that you respond quickly.
“We all want a wonderful Christmas as a family where we can all get together again.
“If this is what we want, then we need to put these measures into place now to bring down transmission rates so we can actually get together to see one another over Christmas.”
Professor Openshaw stated that it was unacceptable to let this run at the moment, adding: “I think the hospitals across the country are barely coping.
“Talking to people at the front lines, I believe it’s just too costly to continue at this pace.
“It’s just unacceptable to witness the number of deaths that are happening at the moment.
“At one stage last Wednesday there were 180 dead in a single day. That’s a lot of people dying. We seem to have gotten used to the idea of Covid causing many, many deaths.
“We must slow down transmission and really redouble effort to get everyone vaccinated, and all the boosters out. Then we can open up again.”
Prof Openshaw was questioned about his advice to those who are concerned about how they can stop the spread if the Government does not reintroduce the measures.
He stated that he believed it was up to each individual to take control of their own destiny. Do not wait for the Government to make policy.
“I’m very, extremely reluctant now to go in crowded spaces because about one in sixty people in a space are going get the virus.
Cycle to work if you can.
‘I believe you should do everything in your power to reduce transmission. Don’t wait to see if the Government changes its policy.
“The sooner we act, the quicker we can lower this transmission rate, and the greater the chance of having Christmas with our families.”
Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, stated that new cases could exceed 100,000 per day. Downing Street however insisted that there was still enough capacity in NHS and that Plan B would only activate if it came under significant pressure’
Only 4.5 million (green line) of the 9.3million eligible English citizens have received the crucial third dose. Ministers have urged people to come forward to get their inoculations.
And the trade unions’ joint statement stated that they all wanted to defeat Covid once and for all.
“But without taking decisive action now we risk falling asleep in another winter of chaos.”
“With hundreds of Covid-related outbreaks at workplaces being reported weekly to health authorities, events feel ominously similar to last winter.
“The government must take immediate action to reduce the spread and spread of Covid. Failure to do this will result in the loss of public health, frontline services, as well as the economy.
The World Health Organisation warned that the vaccine alone would not be sufficient to eradicate the pandemic.
Spokesperson Margaret Harris said to Times Radio that the problem is focusing solely on one thing: The vaccine isn’t going to save us from this.
“We really must take other measures.
“We must be serious about not crowding. We must still consider wearing masks, indoors especially.
According to scientists, the Government must ensure Plan B restrictions against coronavirus can ‘rapidly’ deployed if necessary.
Experts from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), stated in minutes of a meeting published Friday that a new huge spike in infections like the January one was ‘increasingly likely’. This is because experts had predicted a series broader and flatter peaks as the virus spreads.
Sage however warned that measures from the Government’s Plan B would be most effective if taken in unison, and sooner rather than later.
Scientists support a more light-touch approach to transmission, which Sage says will have the greatest individual effect on transmission of the proposed measures.
The Times was told Friday by Rishi Sunak that the country could not go back to’significant economic constraints’. Boris Johnson, however, stated that a lockdown was not in the cards.
Kate Nicholls, UK Hospitality CEO, warned that businesses would not survive another winter under lockdown restrictions.
When she was asked by Times Radio whether she believed businesses would survive if the Government went ahead with Plan B, her blunt answer was: “No, I don’t.” We have already lost 12,000 companies.
She stated that when restrictions are in place, ‘consumers stay at home, they don’t go out and socialise’.