Official figures today suggest that unvaccinated people are up 32 times more likely die from Covid than double-vaccinated.
A report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), found that the death rate for deaths from Covid in England among non-jabbed adults was 849.7/100,000. This compares to the 26.2 rate for fully vaccinated adults and 105.3 for children who have just received their first dose.
The death figures for this year’s January 2 through September 24 were calculated, which includes the brunt from the second wave of vaccine-eligible adults.
Because of the amount of time it took for immunity and protection to kick in, people were counted as single- or dual-vaccinated beginning 21 days after each dose.
Experts today praised the results as proof that everyone should get the vaccine. However, some experts warned that the results may have been ‘overstated’ in terms of the effectiveness and safety of jabs.
The graph above shows the age-standardised mortality rates in England for deaths due to Covid. It is based on vaccination status. They are calculated as per 100,000 person years and age-standardised to account for different vaccine rollout times in different age groups. They show that people who have not been vaccinated are more likely to die from Covid.
The graph above shows how people who have received two doses are less likely to contract the virus. They are closely followed by those who only received one dose (purple). Unvaccinated people are more likely to die from Covid (blueline)
The report included mortality rates that were age-standardised to account for the fact that different age groups were vaccinated at distinct times.
The priority was given to older people, who are most at risk of dying from the virus. The over-80s were also invited to receive their first dose of the vaccine in December. For those in their 20s, they had to wait for June.
To ensure that the maximum number possible could be injected in the shortest amount of time, there was a 12 week gap between the first and the second doses. In June, this gap was reduced to eight weeks.
To determine who had received the vaccine, the ONS used data from the Public Health Data Asset Database. This database includes people in England linked with the 2011 census and GP records in 2019. It covers less than 80% of the country’s inhabitants.
The report also included data on deaths from all causes — such as heart disease and cancer, not just Covid.
It was revealed that those who were not vaccinated were three times more likely than those who had two doses of the vaccine to have died between January and December (2.187 per 100,000).
John Roberts from the Covid Actuaries Response Group commented on the data via Twitter: ‘The difference of total mortality between these two groups (1,403.5), is more than that of Covid deaths (823.5).
“That’s almost certain due to the fact that the demographic profile for the unvaccinated experiences higher mortality normally.
“We know that the uptake of vaccines has been lower in areas with a higher population of ethnic minorities than in those in more deprived areas. I would be surprised if we didn’t see this difference.” The 32-fold increase in vaccine uptake might seem to overstate the effect, but it will still be substantial.
Chris Snowdon, head for lifestyle economics at The Institute for Economic Affairs, said that the statistics might have ‘gilded a lily’ slightly due to the time period.
He tweeted, “This is a questionable statistic because very few people were fully vaccinated up until March.” The evidence is strong, but it is not necessary to make a big deal about it.
Almost 50million Britons — or 86.9 per cent of over-12s — have got at least one dose of the Covid vaccine, and 45.7million have received both doses.
In December, the NHS began to distribute vaccines to people over 80, the vulnerable, and health and social workers.
Following a recommendation from No10’s vaccination advisers in September, it is now offering them to 12-15 year-olds. However, uptake has been slow.
In order to boost immunity for what is expected to become a very difficult winter for NHS, booster shots for over-50s are offered six months after the last dose.
The evidence suggests that Covid vaccines can reduce hospitalisations and deaths among those who contract the virus and its variants.
A report by the UK Health Security Agency — which replaced the now-defunct Public Health England — found last week that jabs work just as well against the more transmissible Delta offshoot as they do on its ancestor.
Scientists claim that vaccines have reduced the likelihood of an infected person with AY.4.2 developing symptoms by 81%.
Two doses of the ancestor strain are believed to be able to prevent around 83% of people from falling ill.
UKHSA admitted that preliminary results did not show a significant drop in vaccine effectiveness for AY.4.2 as compared to Delta, but that it could have been due to chance.
There have been nearly 24,000 cases of this strain in Britain. The true number could be as high as 10 times, however, because only a small fraction of confirmed samples are being sequenced by laboratories.
Separate surveillance data shows the variant has now been found in all but a dozen parts of England and makes up one in ten new cases — with its proportion having doubled in the space of a month.
Although statistics show it is still outcompeting its ancestor’s strain, experts are now questioning whether the subtype is actually more transmissible than Delta. Scientists initially thought the strain was about 10 to 15% more infectious.
Figures show that while the number of cases of the mutant strain is increasing, its curve flattens. It is increasing slower that its predecessor after it was first sequenced.