Sir Patrick Vallance urged Boris Johnson not to wait for the UK to recover from the recurrence of infections by imposing Covid restrictions immediately.
The chief scientific advisor of England warned today that Britain remains in a “very uncertain phase” of the pandemic despite Covid cases dropping for four days straight.
He suggested that the Government’s winter Plan B — which includes compulsory masks, working from home and vaccine passports — should not be taken off the table yet.
Downing Street is thought to have taken confidence from the fall in national infections in recent days and optimistic forecasts by SAGE.
According to scientific advisers, the Government could see a natural decline in the epidemic next month without any curbs due to a combination of the booster vaccination rollout and the natural immunity of children.
Sir Patrick warned against complacency today and said on BBC Radio 4 Today: “You absolutely need to be prepared (for Plan B) and as soon you start thinking “am i, or am i not going to do that?” It looks close” is the right time to push past your natural reluctance and do it.
“This is something that the Government will need to think about carefully, but we must be prepared to move quickly if it happens.”
Sir Patrick warned last month that Prime Minister should be ‘harder than it appears’ to contain the virus.
Trade unions and medics are calling for Britain to immediately switch to Plan B, which will see the reimposition face masks and work-from-home guidance.
Ministers have remained calm and insisted that the NHS isn’t under ‘unsustainable pressure’. Sources tell us that there is a ‘less then 20% chance’ that these plans will be activated.


Sir Patrick Vallance believed that more restrictions should apply at the first sign signs of trouble




LONDON SCHOOL of HYGIENE and TROPICAL MEDICINE: These charts compare the effects of returning to a normal level of social interaction in three months (bottom), and remaining cautious for a full year (right). They also show the impact on infections (left), admissions and deaths (middle), respectively. The models show cases falling in November due to natural immunity and rising in spring (bottom), as vaccine protection is expected decrease.
Sir Patrick stated that the UK was still in a “very uncertain phase” of the pandemic.
He stated that there is a lot of uncertainty about the direction in which this will go.
“It is wrong to believe that immunity building is an all or nothing. It’s a protective barrier that will help reduce the spread of the virus. We need to be vigilant over the coming weeks and months.
Sir Patrick warned that Britain should be ‘hard early’ and impose restrictions when trouble starts to brew at a Downing Street conference last month.
He said: ‘Things are flattish at the moment — if they go up quickly then you’ve got to go early in terms of getting on top of it.
‘You can’t wait until it’s late because you’ve got to do more.’
The chance of ministers activating their winter Covid ‘Plan B’ is less than 20 per cent, Government sources claimed yesterday — but face masks might make a partial comeback in schools.
According to a Whitehall source, today’s Financial Times report stated that the situation was moving in the right direction. He also said that there’s less than 20% chance that Plan B will be activated.
Another senior Government official cautioned against being complacent, saying that it was too soon to read too much into data. They acknowledged that there was no evidence to suggest that Plan B should be activated.
However, reports suggested that ministers would grant regional public health leaders the power of restoring face masks to schools’ communal areas (e.g. corridors and assembly halls) to stop the spread of the virus.
It is unknown if children will be required to cover their faces again in the classroom, a policy that campaign groups claimed hampered their learning as well as caused them physical harm.
The power to reinstate some Covid curbs is already available to local councils in high-infection areas. However, the change could be extended to all regions of England. The Department of Health refused to comment.
Many within SAGE are still pushing for the suite of measures in Plan B — compulsory face masks, working from home and vaccine passports — to be enforced nationally to give added protection and bring cases down quicker.
Daily Covid infections in the UK exceeded the 50,000 barrier last Wednesday.
It prompted medical unions, some scientists and Labour to call for Plan B — mandatory face masks, work from home guidance and vaccine passports — to be implemented immediately in a bid to control infections.
SAGE’s optimistic modeling has shown that infections could plummet to 5,000 over the next few months, even if No10 gives in to demands and resorts to virus-controlling measures.
Scientists believe that a combination of booster vaccinations, natural immunity growing in children, and a decrease in classroom mixing during the October half term break would bring down cases.
Department of Health data indicates that Covid cases have peaked among schoolchildren, which is a positive indicator that they could soon fall in the other age groups to whom they are transmitting the virus.
Its figures are published based on when people took their test and not when they received their results. Experts believe this is more reliable since it accounts for reporting delay.
Cases among 10 to 14-year-olds — the age group with the highest infection rate — may have peaked on October 19 at 1,925.2 positive tests per 100,000 people.
The rate for 15- to 19-year olds and five- to nine-year-olds also reached a peak on October 19, when it was 861.3 and 7760.7, respectively.
The official data shows that the infection rate dropped in these age categories over the next 2 days. The infection rate for 10-14-year olds had fallen to 1,868.9 at the end of October 21.