We all are likely to be glad that 2021 is over. It was the year in which the great vaccine rollout was meant to see off the pandemic — only for us to finish December still in the grip of the virus’s grim maw, with lockdowns, restrictions and statistics on infections, hospitalisations and deaths still the miserable backdrop to everyday life.
I’m also pretty sure few will be happier to leave 2021 behind than Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who in 12 short months has seen his poll ratings tank as his government became increasingly mired in sleaze, cronyism, hypocrisy and incompetence — all entirely self-inflicted by Johnson and those closest to him.
Two years ago, the man who led the Tories in a stunning victory over Corbyn Labour Party wins the new year. He is a diminutive figure and has just presided over the Tories worst ever by-election loss in North Shropshire.
Even loyal Tory supporters are beginning to speak out about the possibility that 2022 could be the year for a new leader.
The bad news is that things are likely to get worse in 2022 — not just for Johnson but for the rest of us, too — before they get better.
He is now seriously injured and his prospects are in jeopardy. However, he is not yet toast
Good news: If we are able to face the challenges of the first half year with fortitude and resilience, there will be brighter opportunities for the second half 2022. There are many reasons to be optimistic if we look at the next twelve months.
This is also true for the Prime Minister. His future is in doubt, he stumbles into the New Year with serious injuries. He’s still not toast.
His salvation is entirely within his own hands, if he can transform his lacklustre Downing Street operation with fresh blood and purpose — and provide the country with the leadership and direction these difficult times require. Johnson might be in better shape by the end of 2022 if he does all this.
Let’s get to the good stuff first. Covid’s Omicron strain has not only disrupted our lives, but also made it difficult to imagine normalcy. This has hampered our economic recovery after the pandemic.
We didn’t end 2021 with an explosion, but with a whine. British economies were meant to be back at their pre-pandemic level before 2021. This won’t occur until the second half of next year.
His salvation is entirely within his own hands, if he can transform his lacklustre Downing Street operation with fresh blood and purpose — and provide the country with the leadership and direction these difficult times require. Johnson can finish 2022 better than when he started it. Stock image
However, even though economic growth is slowing, inflation continues to rise. This makes fools out of the central bankers from London, Frankfurt, and Washington DC, who believed rising prices were a temporary phenomenon.
The UK’s inflation rate will reach a peak of over 6 percent before the summer, and then fall slowly. This tight labor market will ensure that these price hikes are baked in to the system, and pay increases will follow.
But even if you get a 5 per cent pay rise this year — generous by the standards of the past decade or so — your earnings in real terms will still be falling or, at best, stagnating.
That’s not all. There are a variety of government policies that can impact your quality of life.
National insurance contributions (NICs), which will increase from April, will go up and the income tax thresholds frozen. Millions of workers on low and modest wages will see their take home pay dwindle — just as their household energy bills are set to soar.
Even though the economy is struggling, inflation is rising, making Washington DC’s central bankers foolhardy. They were confident that rising prices would only be temporary, despite their belief in economic growth.
Europe is currently paying the cost of ten or more years worth of foolish energy policies that were beyond belief, even the UK. Germany has decided to close its nuclear power plants, even though it is more dependent upon Russian gas and its very dirty coal.
Even though we still use gas for more than 40% of our electricity, Britain has not been able to create adequate gas storage facilities. France’s nuclear power has been questioned by some, despite the fact that it provides security of supply as well as low CO2 emissions.
Europe’s virtue signalling politicians are pleading with the green lobby to deny any natural gas fracking in their country. But they forget to mention that this involves pouring billions into the pockets of the Kremlin, Middle East despots and other countries on which we rely for our gas. And we’re now ever so grateful to the Americans for currently shipping us billions of cubic metres of gas we need — and which the U.S. has to spare because it has fracked.
This is all coming home in 2022.
European gas prices are 15 times higher than America’s — and this is before the Kremlin has really turned the screw.
European gas prices are 15 times higher than America’s — and this is before the Kremlin has really turned the screw (file image)
In April, a crucial month in terms of living standards, the UK’s cap on electricity prices will need to be raised to reflect global energy market costs and the inevitable reality that UK electricity prices are subject to fluctuating. This is likely to add £600 a year to the average household energy bill, which will rise to more than £2,000 a year.
The poorer earners have to use a larger portion of their income for electricity bills than the average earning. It is an additional tax for people with modest incomes at a time their real incomes have been eroded.
The PM isn’t going to like this. It is not something Johnson can speak confidently or with conviction about. The pressure on living standards will become the main political issue in 2022’s first half. This issue requires empathy, seriousness and a sense of purpose. Not Johnsonian traits.
It means Labour’s current modest lead in the polls is likely to be sustained — perhaps even grow — in the first half of the year. The Tories face potentially grim prospects in May’s local elections.
It means Labour’s current modest lead in the polls is likely to be sustained — perhaps even grow — in the first half of the year. The Tories face potentially grave prospects in early May local elections.
Johnson is a popular candidate in the dirt if the Tories are consistently late in summer behind the polls. Johnson has been a victim of poor local elections and cannot address the universal concern about living conditions. Johnson’s chances of winning a leadership challenge will increase and Johnson could be the next prime minister.
Johnson may be threatened by another factor. The British media and political elite are obsessed with Downing Street wallpapers and wine-and cheese parties. We start 2022 in Ukraine with 175,000 Russian soldiers, China discussing dress rehearsals for an invasion and Western intelligence believing that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Geopolitically, 2022 will be known as the year of dangerous living. This is a period when the West lacks the leadership necessary to confront the increasing confidence and expansionism displayed by the major world authoritarian leaders.
America has been the best hope for stability in these times, and it is being led now by Joe Biden (79), a doddery president whose understanding of international affairs and vice-president are both shaky and incompetent.
America has been the best hope for us in times of unrest. However, President Joe Biden (79), is now leading. His grasp of international affairs and vice president are both shaky and inept.
No credentials are available for the new German government to provide global leadership. Macron’s attention is on domestic issues, which will impact his chances at re-election in France’s presidential election in April.
Johnson is the last. Johnson is not the leader on the international stage. His foreign secretary was pretty ineffective and left no visible mark. Except for some grandstanding during the Glasgow Climate Change Jamboree, which he attended last November, his global policy statements have been very limited.
Johnson’s danger isn’t just that he will be viewed by the Tory faithful as the Great Loser, but that they also conclude that he is not the right leader to lead these troubling times.
It is likely that if they agree, it will be curtains for his premiership.
But, and… and yet. Let’s get rid of the dark thoughts that plague us and think about better options. Maybe we aren’t doing enough. Since the Brexit referendum, the dominant narrative in many political and media circles has been that a generally unproductive Britain will end up going to hell.
No credentials are available for the new German government to provide global leadership. Macron’s domestic concerns will decide his chances of being reelected in France’s April presidential election.
So let’s remind ourselves that Goldman Sachs, HSBC, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — none exactly graduates of the Nigel Farage School of Brexit — all think the British economy in 2022 will be the fastest growing of the G7 group of the world’s major economies — for the second year in a row.
The forecasts for growth were around 5% in the US, compared to 3.5 percent in America, 4% in Germany, and 4.4% in France and Italy.
They predict growth despite the tightening of living standards. This is because UK households have accumulated lots of savings and paid off a lot of their debt. Some of this they will spend now that they feel more comfortable with rising home prices.
As labour costs rise, it is also possible that there will be a boom in business investments in 2022. This could include everything from digital innovation to advanced medical technology. Britain has already received faith from foreign investors. UK businesses have enough capital to invest. They just need the vision to make it happen.
In 2021, American TV and film companies spent more than £5 billion on productions in the UK. This year the American streaming giants like Netflix and Disney are planning to spend an incredible $115 billion on films and TV shows — and outside of North America, Britain is by far their biggest production hub (file image)
As with last year, Britain is on course for another bonanza of high-tech investment from overseas — more than France and Germany put together. Britain is a world leader in everything, life sciences and artificial intelligence. Already, we are a creative superpower. This trend is expected to continue.
In 2021, American TV and film companies spent more than £5 billion on productions in the UK. This year the American streaming giants like Netflix and Disney are planning to spend an incredible $115 billion on films and TV shows — and outside of North America, Britain is by far their biggest production hub.
There are political rewards to be won, if Johnson is able to navigate the first half of this year. He could also get vaccines.
His success in introducing vaccines early in 2021 kept him in high places through summer. This meant that voters could overlook the fact that he mishandled the pandemic in his first year. The success in distributing booster shots could signal his return to politics.
He was able to roll out vaccines early in 2021, which kept him in high polls throughout the summer. This meant that voters could overlook the early mistakes he made in handling the pandemic. File image
Johnson has taken a gamble — in the teeth of much scientific advice to the contrary — to place so much faith in booster jabs and to eschew further draconian lockdowns, the default policy of Scotland, Wales and much of continental Europe.
The gamble seems to have paid off so far as the New Year dawns. The Omicron variant is virulent and can cause death in hospitalizations. However, much of the medical community has been denial. South African physicians have said that it appears to be less dangerous than other viruses.
If Johnson holds his nerve and is vindicated by events then Omicron will herald a new stage in the pandemic — not the end of Covid (we’ll probably never get rid of it entirely) but an ability to cope with it without shutting down the economy or suffering huge loss of life. The global economic prospects for 2022 will be enhanced if Britain can lead this transition.
Johnson may also see this as a turning point in his chances of becoming a leader who is in serious trouble and one that has a chance to remain in Downing Street at some point next year.
If Johnson holds his nerve and is vindicated by events then Omicron will herald a new stage in the pandemic — not the end of Covid (we’ll probably never get rid of it entirely) but an ability to cope with it without shutting down the economy or suffering huge loss of life
But it will have to be a very different Johnson from the one we’ve seen these past two years — a more focused, serious leader who has replaced a sense of bumbling ineptitude and self-regard with quiet confidence, purpose and direction.
A Downing Street operation with quality and experience is now in place of the Keystone Cops.
But here’s the catch. Johnson can’t force himself into this transformation. Johnson is not stupid and wants his place in history. But he’s solipsistic enough to think he knows better than any of us how to behave — and hasn’t he done fine just by ‘being Boris’? What’s the point of making a change right now?
I would argue against that — because the old Boris schtick doesn’t work any more. They are sick of the old Boris schtick and want something adulter. He can’t give it to them, so they look for other options. Johnson can Johnson make a change to meet the needs of today? Yes, I have my doubts. He can decide for himself.