Experts behind one of the largest surveillance studies in the country said today that Covid cases in the UK fell five percent in a week and “have probably peaked in 2021”.
King’s College London scientists who run the research have been saying for months that cases were consistently soaring — despite official numbers painting a more mixed picture.
The study last week found that Britain was getting “worryingly close” to 100,000 symptomatic patients per day. However, Government dashboard data showed that they were falling below 40,000.
Now the KCL team estimate there were about 89,000 new symptomatic infections every day last week, down on the 93,000 they forecasted the previous week. This marks the first time since September that the surveillance team has seen a sustained week-on–week drop.
The survey’s epidemiologist, Professor Tim Spector said that the country is likely to have reached the “last great peak” of Covid for the year.
After last month’s plea for the Government to be more cautious due to the country’s’really in danger’, the distinguished scientist has softened his stance regarding the UK’s coronavirus situation.
His symptom-tracking research, which he did with ZOE healthtech firm, relies on people reporting their results, which experts say can lead to bias.
The ZOE findings match the downward trend in daily Department of Health statistics. They have fallen in ten of the last eleven days. No10 was told by scientific advisers that the epidemic could naturally shrink without curbs due to a combination vaccine rollouts and children’s natural immunity, which triggered an explosion of cases.
Meanwhile, ministers expected to reveal in the coming days that NHS won’t have to get a Covid jab this winter to keep their jobs — one of the measures they were considering to keep the pandemic at bay this winter. Whitehall insiders claim that the no jab, not job rule will be in effect from April.
The experts behind the ZOE Covid Study — which is based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and more than 40,000 swabs — calculated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK, based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests taken between October 16 and 30. The study found that around a third (26,928) of cases are among double-jabbed Brits. This is an increase from 26,928 last Wednesday.
The main driver of the downward trend is a drop in infection rates in children, according to researchers. One in 34 people aged 10-19 were infected last week. Children aged 9 and under are infected at a rate of one in 52. Infections are levelling off in all other groups apart from those aged 55 to 75, which the experts said is a ’cause for concern’ — but rates are still below the national average in the group
One in 53 UK residents has symptomatic Covid. The figure is higher for England (one to 52) and Wales (2 one 42), while it’s lower for Scotland (one to 81). Researchers said that there weren’t enough respondents in Northern Ireland for a reliable estimate. In the UK, the highest infection rates are found in the West Midlands (one out 45), South West (1 in 45), and North East (1 in 46).
According to the Covid Syndrome Study, one in 53 UK citizens had symptomatic Covid last Week. The figure is higher for England (one-in-52) and Wales (one-in-42), and lower for Scotland (one out 81). Infection rates in the UK are highest in the Midlands, South East, and North East.
The surveillance study showed that the average number of people who have had Covid in their last week was 1,489 per day. They will continue to experience symptoms for 12 weeks.
The symptom study found that there were 88.592 daily symptomatic Covid cases in the UK each day up to October 30.
This was based upon data from 42,359 positive and lateral flow tests and hundreds of thousands of app users.
Nearly a third of cases (26.928) were among doublejabbed Brits.
One in 53 British citizens had a tattoo. symptomatic Covid, while the figure is higher in England (one in 52) and Wales (one in 42), while it was less in Scotland (one in 81). The researchers stated that there were not enough respondents from Northern Ireland to provide a reliable estimate.
Within the UK, infection rates were highest in West Midlands (one in 45), South West (one in 45) and North East (one in 46).
A drop in infection rates among children was the main driver of the downward tread, the researchers said.
One in 34 children aged 10 to 19 got infected last Week, while one in 52 children aged 9 to 12 were infected.
Infections are levelling off in all other groups apart from those aged 55 to 75, which the experts said is a ’cause for concern’ — but rates are still below the national average in the group.
It estimated that the R-rate in the UK was at one. This means that 10 people with the virus are spreading it to 10 others.
ZOE also predicted that 1,489 people per day would experience Covid symptoms for more than 12 weeks.
Professor Spector stated, “It’s great that cases are finally starting to come down. And hopefully we’re over this last great peak of Covid by 2021.
“This is due in large measure to declining rates in children who have been on half-term holidays and high rates previous infection rates, but we’re optimistic that the trend will continue.”
He stated that while it is “still worrying” that cases in the older and more vulnerable age group are rising, he said that the booster programme will likely reduce these cases.
Professor Spector stated, “As the temperatures drop and winter approaches, we still see far too many Covid in our community leading to high long Covid rates and hospitalisations compared to other Western European countries.”
“With high rates of other viral respiratory diseases, including flu, there is no room to be complacent.”
He said, “While restrictions, vaccines, and masks are all factors, it is clear that there is no single solution to permanently lowering rates.”
“We have found that a combination vaccine and population safety precautions works best. Therefore, the third booster vaccine is combined with mask wearing, distancing in high-risk areas, and this is our way out.
Professor Jonathan Ball, University of Nottingham molecular virologist, said that transmission rates among children may have decreased during the half-term break.
He said, “But one result of all this virus transmission among younger people is that it will cause them to become immune, and as immunity builds transmission will slow down.”
‘Whilst I don’t expect massive increases in case numbers, I think case numbers over the next few months will still be lumpy as the virus continues to circulate in unvaccinated people and in those whose immunity has started to wane.
“That’s why people need to get vaccinated. If invited, get their booster shot.
Data from the gold-standard Office for National Statistics infection survey — which is closely watched by ministers but lags behind ZOE — estimated one in 50 people were infected in the seven days up to October 22, marking a 13 per cent rise in a week.
It comes after Department of Health bosses posted 41,299 positive coronavirus tests yesterday , down six per cent on last Wednesday’s figure of 43,941. Cases have fallen week-on-week every day for eleven days barring Monday — a blip that was down to Wales not publishing any infection numbers the previous week.
The latest data for Saturday shows that hospitalisations remained flat. The virus was infected approximately 888 people, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous week.
Deaths are still rising, with last week’s total jumping by 4.8 per cent to 217. Because of the time it takes for patients to become seriously ill, changes in fatality rates can be delayed by several weeks.
These figures are coming after Professor Jonathan Van-Tam today warned Britons about another Christmas lockdown if they don’t act like the pandemic is over.
England’s deputy chief physician officer stated that there were upcoming ‘hard weeks’ and that the country was experiencing a high infection rate. This is ahead of what is expected to become a challenging winter for the NHS. He added, in one of his famous analogies, “The last whistle on Covid hasn’t blown yet.”
Professor Van-Tam urged the nation to behave responsibly and emphasised the importance of face masks — but did not outright call for their enforced return in public spaces.
But Whitehll insiders claimed today that NHS workers will not be forced to get a Covid jab this winter to keep their job — a policy that would have been part of efforts to control rising infections.
Ministers will announce mandatory jabs for hundreds, thousands of frontline medical personnel in the coming days. However, the actual rule is not expected until April.
Officials have been discussing a ‘no jab no job’ move for NHS staff for several months in an effort to protect the winter health service. Ministers have already made the controversial move for care home workers. They are required to take two doses starting November 11.
Department of Health bosses told MailOnline ‘no final decision’ had been made, with Health Secretary Sajid Javid rumoured to still have reservations about the policy — despite publicly admitting that he was ‘leaning towards’ the mandate.
A Whitehall insider familiar with the negotiations claimed that the move was a done deal’ and could now be officially announced.