MailOnline by James Robinson 

Industry bosses today warn that the rising cost of curry may cause a rise in UK prices. 

Indian spice suppliers told food producers that they are planning a 50 percent price rise on spices for Indian recipes, including cumin and coriander.

Food companies claim that the prices of garlic and ginger have’shot up’ by half in the last six months.

According to bosses, other ingredients, such as green peppers, spinach and chilis have increased as much as 25%.

According to Indian restaurant owners, the rising cost of wages due to a lack of qualified chefs and spiralling costs for utilities and transport – new numbers suggest that they could have increased by 30% in the past two years – are also affecting Indian restaurants’ profits.

Inflation could soon lead to the loss of popular food items like Butter Chicken, Chicken Tikka Masala or Saag Aloo. 

One restaurateur told MailOnline that prices could rise by as much as £1 per dish.

Thomas Cropper, managing director of ready meals and food-to-go brand, Tuk in Foods, told trade magazine, The Grocer, that he had been emailed by an ingredient supplier who said they 'wanted to put a 50 per cent increase on the price of our spices'. He also told MailOnline that other ingredients such as peppers, coriander and spinach had all gone up in price

Thomas Cropper was the executive director of Tuk in Foods’ ready-to eat food brand and food to-go business. A supplier of ingredients emailed Cropper with a request for him to increase the price of their spices by 50 percent, he said. MailOnline also heard from him that prices for other ingredients like peppers, coriander, and spinach have all increased. 

Popular dishes including Chicken Tikka Masala, Butter Chicken (pictured) and Saag Aloo could be the next victim of inflation, due to an increase in the spice prices

Inflation could soon be a problem for popular foods like Butter Chicken (pictured), Chicken Tikka Masala, and Saag Aloo, as a result of an increase in spice prices

Ingredient suppliers have reportedly told food firms that they plan a huge spike on the price of spices (library image). Food suppliers say the cost of garlic and ginger have already gone up 50 per cent in the past six month

According to reports, ingredient suppliers told food companies that they are planning a massive increase in the cost of spices (library photo). The cost of ginger and garlic have risen 50 per cent over the last six months, according to food suppliers.

Yawar Khan who is chairman of ACF (The Asian Catering Federation) told MailOnline, “Prices for lots of ingredients are increasing.” Things like cooking oil we used to pay £19 (for a 20litre drum) and now it is £24.

‘Spices would normally costs around £5-per-kilogram (2lbs), but now costs around £6.50. Chicken has increased by 20%, lamb about 20%.

Khan said that Indian restaurants were also affected by a lack of skilled chefs.

He stated that “Restaurants have to pay more in order to keep staff open.”

They are paid around 15-20 percent more in salary. In order to survive, restaurants will have to pass on all these additional costs to their customers.

Asked how much he expects curry prices to rise, Mr Khan, whose ACF group are behind the Asian Restaurant Awards, said: ‘I think somewhere between 40p to £1.’

He added that the majority of people believe that cheap curry is the best way to lower quality. The days of cheap curry for Friday evening are gone, however.

Meanwhile, Thomas Cropper, managing director of ready meals and food-to-go brand, Tuk in Foods, told trade magazine, The Grocer, that he had been emailed by an ingredient supplier who said they ‘wanted to put a 50 per cent increase on the price of our spices’.

He claimed that customers would feel the pinch from an increase in ingredient prices because it is ‘inevitable. 

Mr Cropper, whose business is based in Leicester and has recently signed a £3million deal to supply products to Co-Op, told the magazine: ‘People cannot produce food at the same cost as two years ago, so inevitably consumers are going to pay more.’

MailOnline received information from him that Indian restaurants and takeaways could be affected but not as severely as companies like his.

Cropper stated that ingredients account for 30% of a business’s costs, whereas restaurant’s will make up 10%. This will have an effect, however, it won’t as significant.

According to another supplier, The Grocer, they have ‘definitely noticed an increase in spices costs’. Many believe it’s due to an increase in transport costs.

Jara Zicha from Mintec, a commodity analyst said that price changes were caused by a range of factors.

He stated that the UK’s spice market was affected by Brexit and freight problems. 

“Soaring freight prices, increasing shipping costs, delays in shipping, inadequate container capacity, port bottlenecks and driver shortages for HGVs are all factors that impact supply availability, driving up costs.

“Add to that weather-related issues in certain producing countries, rising packaging costs and you have obvious pressure for importers.” 

According to the Office of National Statistics, it comes at a time when UK inflation experienced its highest jump in record numbers for August. 

According to the stats group, August’s Consumer Prices Index measurement of annual inflation increased by 3.2 percent from July’s 2 percent.

Yawar Khan, who owns a restaurant and is the chairman of The Asian Catering Federation (ACF), told MailOnline: 'Prices are going up for a lot of ingredients. Things like cooking oil we used to pay £19 (for a 20litre drum) and now it is £24.'

Yawar Khan who is chairman of the Asian Catering Federation, (ACF) told MailOnline that prices are rising for many ingredients. Things like cooking oil we used to pay £19 (for a 20litre drum) and now it is £24.’

Thomas Cropper (pictured), from Tuk in Foods, told MailOnline that Indian restaurants and takeaways would likely be impacted, but not to the same extent as businesses like his

Thomas Cropper (pictured), of Tuk in Foods told MailOnline Indian restaurants and take-aways will likely be affected but not in the way that businesses like his.

This rate is at its highest since March 2012. However, prices are expected to rise slightly in September. 

In September 2018, the increase in cost of living was 3.1%, compared to August’s 3.2 percent.

The rising cost of petrol, increased gas prices and the risk of high winter fuel bills all contribute to this increase. There is also a lack of HGV drivers which has pushed up transport costs. This has led to empty shelves at Christmas.

Spiraling natural gas prices around the world, Covid’s impact and a labor shortage partly due to Brexit are all factors that have been blamed.

But, inflation in the EU is high as well. According to the most recent data, Germany’s inflation stands at five percent per year, the highest since the 1930s.

Due to the UK’s labour shortage, the UK has a severe shortage in staff for the hospitality sector, which is forcing restuarants across the country to close.

Thomas Heier (chief executive) of Wagammama pan-Asian restaurant chain Wagammama stated to the Press Association that it faced difficulties at 30 out of its 147 locations.

“We’ve witnessed a reduction of our EU workforce, but we also have increased competition from delivery and logistics firms that are dealing with an increase in vacancies.”

UKHospitality is an industry lobbying group that has called the staff shortage ‘critical. 

The Office for National Statistics revealed that the sector of hospitality had a vacancy rate of 10%, which is equivalent to approximately 210,000 jobs.

Today’s announcement comes after a marketplace index revealed that the UK’s road transport pricing reached a record-breaking 33-month high in September 2021.

TEG Road Transport Price Index, which monitors changes in pricing for road transport services, found that the market for road transport experienced its highest average price per mile over 33 months in September 2021. This is a 30% increase on January 2019.

The index was said to have stabilized in October.

Lyall Cresswell CEO, Transport Exchange Group says that the demand for truck drivers and freight capacity is unrivalled. Multiple factors mean it will continue to rise for a long time.

Kirsten Tisdale, director of logistics consultants Aricia Limited and Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport, says: ‘Any price index is influenced by several factors: underlying cost changes; availability/capacity of the market; and demand for the service.

TEG Road Transport Price Indices are influenced by changes in diesel prices and road transport demand. 

Although driver pay was a contributing factor to the rising rates starting in spring 2021, it seems that there is less potential for overheating. However, further demand may still exist.

Last week, the Bank of England declared that Britons already saw inflation “biting” into their household incomes. This winter they will be even more hard hit.

Andrew Bailey admitted he is sorry for the situation, warning that rising energy prices may become permanent because of the move away from coal in order to combat climate change.  

This graph shows how energy prices are projected by the Bank to account for a large part of the near¿term pickup in inflation

This graph shows how energy prices are projected by the Bank to account for a large part of the near‑term pickup in inflation

Wholesale oil and gas prices have risen substantially during 2021, as shown in this graph from the Bank

As shown in the Bank graph, wholesale oil and natural gas prices increased significantly between 2021 and 2021.

According to him, inflation is clearly a problem that affects the household income. They are already experiencing that with rising prices, I am sure,” he said to BBC Radio 4’s Today program.

“I am very sorry this is happening. We don’t want that to happen.

Bailey stated that the primary factor in inflation is the high cost of gas and predicted it would continue to rise with the world’s switch to net zero.  

He stated, “It’s reasonable and necessary that we might transition to more polluting oil to less-polluting hydrocarbons until finally let’s pray we emerge in an even more complete renewable economy.” 

“It is possible that some things we saw with gas prices are already climate change taking effect, if there’s an outright switch to coal. 

“Another part would be permanent higher price, and not higher inflation but an increase in prices.

Even though yesterday’s Bank of England vote against interest rate increases, mortgage prices are continuing to climb.

For the 2million homeowners with variable rates mortgages, this was a temporary reprieve. No bill rises are expected immediately.

But experts warned it is only a matter of time before rates do go up – with a hike still possible before Christmas.

Since the Budget, the lenders pulled their lowest fixed rate deals to make way for an upward march. Just hours before the Bank’s vote they increased their rates.

The Bank of England today chose to keep interest rates at the current record low of 0.1 per cent after a 'knife edge' decision

Today, Bank of England made a decision to retain interest rates at the record-breaking low of 0.1% after making a knife Edge’ decision

The Bank of England produced this graph showing its CPI inflation projection based on market interest rate expectations

This chart shows how the Bank of England projects CPI inflation based on market expectation.

The Bank also released this graph showing its gross domestic product projection based on market interest rate expectations

A graph showing the Bank’s projected gross domestic product based on market expectation of interest rates was also published by them

Banks and building societies have announced 42 different sets of rate changes with hundreds of deals now more expensive, according to mortgage broker L&C. Some banks and building societies have increased rates multiple times, while loans below 1 percent disappearing quickly.

Rising mortgage prices will cause major problems for households in financial trouble whose finances are already squeezed due to rising costs and possible tax hikes.

For millions of savers, who suffered from rock-bottom rates for more than a decade, this was an immense disappointment.

There is currently no account which protects cash from rising prices.

There is £965.7billion in easy access accounts earning an average of 0.1 per cent, according to the Bank of England.

With inflation predicted to hit 5 per cent next year, savers stand to lose out on £47.3billion of spending power.