Most know from bitter experience that meteorology is far from an exact science, but Britain’s two leading weather forecasting services have given completely contradictory predictions on what we can expect this winter.
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh.
Experts described last night the oppositional long-range forecasts in a way that is unimaginable. They could have devastating effects on businesses, such as transport companies, retailers, and airlines, which depend on forecasts for planning ahead.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook from November to the end of January says: ‘A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one. Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.’ Its computer forecast model shows a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February.
But rival forecaster DTN, formerly known as MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’.
The firm, which won the BBC’s multi-million-pound weather contract from the Met Office three years ago, said: ‘This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.’
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh
MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’
This stark contrast has shocked seasoned meteorologists who warn that companies may misunderstand spending decisions of millions of pounds if it is not followed correctly.
John Hammond, who worked for both the BBC and the Met Office and now co-runs forecasting agency Weathertrending, said: ‘It’s meteorological mayhem with huge disagreement on what happens in the months ahead.
‘They are starkly different forecasts and can’t both be right. Customers such as Government and the media sector have huge implications. One of the big guys will need to back-pedal. Who will blink first?’
The Met Office, which received £28.5 million of taxpayers’ money last year, is the oldest meteorological service in the world and has been providing forecasts to the UK for more than 150 years.
DTN’s forecaster stated, “This winter is expected to feature weak polar vortex. This will bring increased cold risks from Arctic Air masses.”
It faced embarrassment in October 1987 when BBC weatherman Michael Fish (pictured) famously dismissed a viewer’s fears before the Great Storm.
It faced embarrassment in October 1987 when BBC weatherman Michael Fish famously dismissed a viewer’s fears before the Great Storm. It was also ridiculed in 2009 after proclaiming the chances were ‘odds-on for a barbecue summer’ only for it to be a total washout.
However, the Met Office is hoping to improve its chances with investment in a new £1.2 billion supercomputer which is expected to be the most advanced machine of its kind dedicated to weather and climate. It is expected to be one of the most powerful supercomputers worldwide and will also have twice the computing power as other UK machines.
DTN is based in Minnesota and employs around 200 meteorologists all over the globe. Its parent company bought Dutch-based Meteogroup in 2018 and created the world’s largest private weather forecaster.
A Met Office spokesman said: ‘The Met Office cannot comment on DTN forecasts as we do not have a full “inside” understanding of the methods and techniques they use to produce forecasts.’ DTN did not respond to requests for comment last night.
In the near future, Icelandic air will blow across the country sending temperatures plummeting.
Forecasters predict snowfall within the week, with overnight frosts expected to arrive in a matter of days.
Met Office forecaster Marco Petagna said: ‘I couldn’t imagine a better weather pattern for cold weather fans, with forecast models showing a northerly straight from the Arctic next week.’
Warnings were made about heavy snowfall expected in the North tomorrow. The cold blast will reach South Wednesday night, when London might see freezing rains.