As revelations broke of yet another lockdown gathering in No 10 last night, the mood in Downing Street was one of frustration bordering on anger – with a dash of despair thrown in.
While allies of Boris Johnson furiously disputed the details of a so-called ‘birthday bash’ thrown for the Prime Minister by No 10 staff during lockdown, they acknowledged that the public is not in listening mode on the issue.
They cannot get out of this mess no matter how hard they try. It has been difficult for Westminster to change their mood since Plan B Covid was lifted, which made it the largest country in Europe.
David Cameron has privately described Mr Johnson as ‘the greased piglet’ for his ability to slip out of apparently impossible situations.
David Cameron has privately described Mr Johnson as ‘the greased piglet’ for his ability to slip out of apparently impossible situations
Former admirers think that the two years spent dealing with the pandemic, which forced him into a position that was contrary to his instincts has robbed the grease.
Is he able to escape?
The outlook for the future is certainly dire.
Downing Street insiders claim that they don’t know what Whitehall ethics chief Sue Gray will say about the party culture which seems to have taken root at the heart and soul of government while it was locked down.
But the auspices are not great – she is, after all, the official whose report into the conduct of Damian Green led to his resignation at a time when he was deputy prime minister. One insider last night predicted the final report would be ‘warts and all’.
What’s more, his nemesis Dominic Cummings is gleefully telling anyone who will listen that there is more ‘evidence’ of illicit parties to come once the report is published – including photographs that could dispel any notion that the gatherings involved were ‘work events’ as the PM insists.
At the same time, Westminster is awash with confident speculation that the publication of Miss Gray’s report will trigger a flood of letters of no confidence from Tory MPs, sparking a formal confidence vote in the PM’s future. The botched ‘Pork Pie Plot’ launched by a group of newly elected MPs last week was easy to dismiss. Ringleaders had unwisely boasted that the threshold of 54 letters would be breached by 5pm last Wednesday – only for the deadline to come and go.
Discontent with the PM goes deeper than that.
Certainly a group of 2019 MPs can see their narrow majorities disappearing, and believe they could save their skins by installing a new leader – notwithstanding the fact it was Boris Johnson who won them their seats just two years ago.
However, there are still pockets of unhappyness in parliament. This includes Brexiteers dissatisfied with the EU agreement, Remainers who have never been reconciled with the PM and sacked ministers as well members of Tory Right concerned by the manifesto-busting taxes rises.
Ominously, the PM also appears to have lost the confidence of the 1922 Committee – the so-called ‘men in grey suits’ whose role has traditionally included telling Tory leaders when their time is up.
Members of the committee’s executive, including chairman Sir Graham Brady, met for a shoot last week at which the PM’s future was discussed.
A proposal to change the leadership rules so that two challenges are allowed per year was the outcome. The idea looks like it will be approved tomorrow by the wider committee.
Downing Street finally realized the severity of the threat.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has been drafted in to reprise the spreadsheet of Tory MPs’ views which formed the bedrock of Mr Johnson’s successful 2019 leadership bid.
To help Nadine Dorries, the Prime Minister, and other senior ministers, a core group of loyalists was put together to pressurise the MPs into submission.
One old hand says it is ‘time to get the gongs out’ and use the PM’s immense powers of patronage to help bolster support.
It is being encouraged to emphasize the risks of this destabilizing leadership challenge.
With nearly 90,000 Covid cases reporting yesterday, the country continues to struggle with the effects of the pandemic.
Without Government intervention, families are now facing an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis that could turn into a major catastrophe.
Ex-lovers of the man believe the gritty has been stripped off after two years dealing with the pandemic which has made him act against his natural instincts.
British intelligence agencies think Europe is at the edge of war. Russia could be poised to invade Ukraine within days.
One Whitehall source last night warned that Mr Johnson’s critics were playing into the hands of Vladimir Putin, saying the Russian president would be ‘laughing his head off’ at the farcical events threatening to bring down one of his most outspoken critics.
Allies worry that rebels might be able to gather the 54 names necessary for a no-confidence vote even inside No 10.
But Mr Johnson’s future does not have to end there.
Insiders say he is up for the fight, telling friends: ‘Bring it on.’
A Tory leader must win a simple majority by secret ballot from Conservative MPs under the Tory leadership rules.
Even most bullish rebels admit that they might not be able convince 180 of their fellow colleagues to vote against a leader who led them to victory in a massive landslide two years back.
The winner of the contest will be able to continue fighting with his new team if the votes against him are kept below two-digits.
If he can then contain the damage at May’s local elections, he will have the chance to put ‘Partygate’ in the rear-view mirror.
He must fight for his rights in order to do so.