We have been struggling with the usual winter sickness epidemic in hospital wards. But now we are facing more serious illnesses and deaths.
Along with these large, unreliable numbers is the risk of more restrictions and control.
There are new demands to lockdowns coming from people who think that suppression of Covid-19 is more important than all human endeavors. Yet attempts to shut down society make no sense – particularly as they are at odds with real experience on the ground.
A true description of where we find ourselves is more nuanced and – overwhelmingly – more optimistic than the forecasts suggest.
CARL HENEGHAN: Already struggling with the normal tide of winter sickness in our hospital wards, we now find ourselves hit with yet more frightening projections of serious illness and death
Our situation is completely different to the one we faced last year when we were forced into emergency lockdown. There are many antiviral medicines that we can use to protect our patients. Some even offer up to 90 percent efficacy.
Also, serious illness has declined in significant numbers. When we look back at last year’s figures, more than 19,000 people were admitted to hospital and 2,000 admissions per day. With 7,600 hospitalized patients, 900 admissions per day and an overall total of 7,600 people, these numbers have nearly doubled.
We can take comfort in the fact that worrying mathematical models, regardless of how precise and clear they are, have always overpredicted the truth.
For example, the modelling used to justify Health Secretary Sajid Javid’s claim that we are already seeing 200,000 new Omicron infections a day has now been abandoned by health officials.
The further modeling was criticised because it failed to take into account evidence from South Africa, which shows Omicron causes fewer deaths or hospitalisations among older and more vulnerable individuals than the previous version of the virus.
Covid cases have seen a significant increase due to increased testing. Around one million Covid tests were conducted in Britain on December 7. By December 15, this had risen to 1.63 million – a rise of nearly two-thirds in eight days.
Nevertheless, the actual infection rate has remained relatively stable as a result of the PCR testing system.
The fact that vaccines are still working is reassuring (although protection may wane in the future).
CARL HENEGHAN: I am a GP as well as an epidemiologist and I spent yesterday morning visiting urgent cases among the elderly. It was bustling, but it also had many common respiratory issues that we all face this time of year.
My title is GP, but I also work as an epidemiologist. Yesterday morning I was able to visit elderly cases. Although it was busy, the patients were able to breathe normally during this time of year.
It didn’t feel as though we are overwhelmed with Covid. Coronaviruses are seasonal in the Northern Hemisphere, as are several other respiratory pathogens, so it shouldn’t be surprising if hospital admissions are high.
Politicians and advisors would be able to look at the actual NHS front line and not just listen to the focus groups and stare at graphs. In the real world, it’s clear people have changed their behaviour in response to the change in case numbers and the guidance they have received. Analysis of people’s movements shows retail activity is down by 25 per cent in Greater London. The use of public transport is declining by 40%, as well as attendance at work.
This is one reason why inflated projections become so rapidly outdated – without continual adjustment, they are misleading.
Someday, people will realize that they can trust themselves to recognize and manage their risks. We must also be aware of the dangers to those most at risk and the pressure on the health system.
We must now be flexible about how we approach the winter surge of respiratory viruses. When we spend time with vulnerable elderly people, it is important to get tested and talk with them about their risks. Then, discuss the options with them.
But if we are to be trusted to run our own lives, we need accurate data – and that is in short supply.
We’re still unable to say with confidence who is unwell in hospital or for what reason. Is it because elderly people are sick or because the sector is short of beds? Are there any daily Covids?
CARL HENEGHAN: The virus will continue to evolve and what matters now is our ability to cope with the risk and to leave lockdowns behind
It is important to hold the government accountable for providing accurate information.
It is likely that the virus will evolve, but what really matters right now is how we can deal with it and get out of lockdowns.
From the experiences of Scotland and Wales, where restrictive measures were used, we know that these measures did not prevent sickness, hospitalization, or death. These measures haven’t prevented winter rising.
There is always uncertainty. It is important to learn how to accept uncertainty. It is impossible to seek protection against all unknown dangers. Too many people in authority are unwilling to acknowledge this.
Their goal is to create an illusion of certainty. Many rely on scary statistics which can lead to endless lockdowns. Two years later, we can no longer have the same. We cannot continue to ignore the harms and divisions caused by closing down society – the sickness and death on the other side of the Covid balance sheet – or the fact that those who suffer most from shutting the economy are the young and the poor.
We can only be happy when we all are together.