As Vladimir Putin keeps assembling his troops on Europe’s doorstep, satellite images show huge Russian tanks, artillery and troop camps near the Ukrainian border. Warnings that he might invade in weeks have led to him continuing to massed his army.
Newly-published images document at least three camps housing seven battalions of troops near at Yelnya and Pogonovo, between 100 and 150 miles from the border, which analysts say have arrived in the last month.
More images taken from Russian-occupied Crimea shows what appears to be dozens of tanks and artillery pieces parked on a base at Novoozerne, around 80 miles from the border, which have also arrived in recent weeks.
Images were taken from an intelligence leak by the US that stated there are 50 Russian troops at the border, with 50 others being assembled quickly in reserve. The report warned Putin would be ready to invade using as many as 175,000 soldiers.
Russia has now 50 battalions with up to 94,000 soldiers stationed at the Ukrainian border. Another 80,000-100,000 troops are in reserve. The US warned that they will invade the country within weeks.
Five Russian troop battalions were pictured in a camp near Yelna. It is located 150 miles away from Ukraine’s borders. This was taken within the past month, as US intelligence has warned that Putin may have 50 of these battalions residing on Europe’s doorstep.
Another view of the Russian military camp in Yelna. US intelligence has claimed that Putin is ready to invade Ukraine within weeks.
Tensions at Europe’s east border simmering ever since Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. They have threatened to boil over every year since Moscow began deploying forces there in April.
In the largest Russian show of force since Crimea was annexed, over 100,000 soldiers were sent to the border that month. Analysts disagree with this estimate.
“Russian plans call for an offensive military against Ukraine in the early 2022,” a White House source said to the Washington Post as part of the intelligence briefing.
According to the plans, there will be a large movement of 100 tactical battalions with around 175,000 people, as well as armor, artillery, and other equipment.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken last week made a tour of European allies to shore up support for Ukraine in the event it is attacked, with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov calling for more NATO troops – including British units – to be stationed in visible positions near the frontlines as a deterrent to Russia.
Joe Biden has scheduled a call this week with President Putin in an attempt to defuse the situation. Biden said last week that the ‘package of measures’ he is preparing includes sanctions, to make it “very difficult” for Putin to accept any invasion.
After weeks of intelligence sharing, leaders at all levels have been convinced that a Russian invasion was possible. NATO and EU allies support Biden’s decision to take a stronger stance against Putin.
Monday was a sad day for U.S.-Russia relations. Dmitry Peskov spoke out, stating that NATO will focus attention on this call.
Russia is pressing the west to guarantee that Ukraine won’t become NATO members. This comes as Moscow attempts to stop NATO from moving closer to its borders.
Also, the Kremlin is furious at Western aggression in the Black Sea near Crimea and an increase in bomber patrols that it claims are getting closer to its borders.
The backdrop is a global arms race, in which Russia, China, US and others are racing for new technologies and increased force.
One battalion of Russian troops is pictured camped at Pogonovo, near the Russian city of Voronezh, which intelligence sources say has arrived in the region within the last month
A second newly-arrived battalion of Russian troops is seen camped at Pogonovo, near Voronezh, which is around 100 miles from the Ukrainian border
Russian tanks, artillery pieces and support vehicles are seen at a newly-built camp at Novoozerne, in Crimea, which is located around 80 miles from the Ukrainian border
America has been the world’s dominant superpower for many decades. Now, it must consider a future in which China is a major rival. China’s economy will be the biggest by the year 2000.
Washington has diverted its focus from Russia and Middle East for years to shift it towards the Pacific. It is withdrawing troops in Syria and Afghanistan, and trying to press NATO allies into taking on a larger share of the Joint Defence Budget. While forging new alliances, Australia, India, and Japan, Washington raises alarm about China’s presence around Taiwan and South China Sea.
Washington also permitted a few Cold War-era defense treaties to expire. These were originally intended to stabilize Europe’s security. Washington stated that new agreement must include China in order to prevent Beijing from gaining unfair advantages in weapon development.
It has led to uncertainty and instabilities that have allowed Putin take a stronger stance towards Europe’s Eastern border. This includes via Alexander Lukashenko, his close ally from Belarus.
While the troops being built up in Ukraine are seen as Putin’s latest stance, analysts disagree on whether or not he intends to invade.
While many people doubt Putin would invade, it is possible that some will see a different view.
“Putin is raising the stakes.” Tatiana Stanovaya (founder of R.Politik Center, a political consulting firm, and non-resident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center) said that Putin is not bluffing anymore. She told AFP that he was ready to make a drastic move.
Biden’s and Putin’s relationship will impede efforts to find a solution. It is frosty at best and nakedly hostile at worst.
Biden, at that time Vice President, was said to tell Putin “I don’t think you have soul” when they first met in 2011 in Moscow. Putin responded with: “We know one another.”
Tensions are simmering between Russia and America for several months. Biden will call Putin this week in order to attempt to diffuse the situation, before it escalates into conflict.
One Ukrainian soldier is seen crouching in a trench close to the Russian frontline. This is where an anti-Russian proxy war has been waged against separatists since years.
Ukrainian troops use radio to request a battlefield report from a dugout located near the frontline. This is a battle with Russian-back separatists that have been fighting the Ukrainian government for many years.
Biden upset Putin once more earlier this year after he agreed to a journalist’s description that the Russian President was a “killer”. Putin responded, “It takes one man to know one.”
They then met President-to-President in Geneva in June, a meeting the White House only agreed to after the first Russian troop build-up. Biden previously declined to call Putin because he was too busy.
Although the Geneva talks went without incident, it was far from pleasant. They spoke only for a short time, there was no food served and then they held separate press conferences.
Putin warned Kiev and the West not to go against the Kremlin’s “red lines”, including building weapons in Ukraine. Biden replied later that he would not agree with anyone’s red lines.
Heather Conley is a former US assistant secretary of state for European Affairs and said that she thinks Putin will apply enormous pressure in Ukraine.
Conley from the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that Biden is keen to host another personal summit. She said that he also wanted to ease Western ties towards Ukraine. Some see it as an ‘a type of NATO air carrier’.
Fyodor Lukyanov, an influential political analyst and close to Putin, stated that while he is skeptical of Biden’s ability to reach an agreement with Putin on Tuesday, he believes they can agree on something concrete. However, he said that hostilities will not break out in the event the talks fall apart.
He said to AFP that this was hysteria created by the West. “Wars start suddenly.” If war begins suddenly, it will be different.
In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and began supporting the rebel forces in Kiev. More than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict.
Is it possible for the leader of the opposition to fail at the virtual meeting?
Conley stated that Russia will not be granted the accommodation it needs if diplomacy fails. Putin will then turn to military means in pursuit of his political goals.